Housing study highlights expanding population projected for Madison County

Madison County is poised for growth as a result of the BlueOval City (BOC) project underway in Stanton. Construction of the site, located about 40 miles west of downtown Jackson, has progressed as scheduled and production of Ford’s new-generation electric truck will ramp up next year. The investment by Ford Motor Co. and its companion battery-production plant, SK On, is expected to create at least 6,000 jobs directly tied to the two manufacturers. 

In addition to the two main plants, BlueOval City will house direct suppliers for the factories, a Tennessee College of Applied Technology and a Lowe’s retail store. 

Tennessee’s Department of Economic and Community Development has spent the past year and a half connecting with communities that will see significant impacts from the regional project. Jackson and Madison County are among those communities.

From transportation studies to population-growth estimates to housing research, there are a handful of organizations working to accommodate current and future residents. During last month’s virtual meeting of West Tennessee leaders and the TNECD, it was announced the housing study for Madison County conducted by Younger Associates was complete.

According to the study, easy access to BOC via I-40 and US Hwy. 70/79, along with McKellar-Sipes Regional Airport, gives Jackson and its utility provider, Jackson Energy Authority, a higher capacity for growth than those communities immediately surrounding BOC, according to the housing study.

“The housing study is referenced and utilized during many conversations with potential new industry, as well as prospective small businesses and developers. We have already begun to see an influx of new residents, many of whom are attracted to West Tennessee due to our low cost of living, low taxes, and quality of life. BlueOval City has only served to accelerate the growth of Jackson and Madison County,” Madison County Mayor A.J. Massey noted.

In 2022, Madison County had a reported population of 98,999, with approximately 65,819 of those residing in Jackson. The study shows there was growth in the late ‘80s through the 1990s, then the county trailed state and national growth rates between 2000-2010. Reported households were 35,552, according to the 2000 Census. In 2010, that number grew to 38,073 households and the county saw slight growth in 2022 with 38,566 households.

The number of family households grew slightly from 24,652 in 2000 to an estimated 26,062 in 2022.

TNECD classified the eight-counties containing and surrounding BOC the economic-impact zone. The eight counties include Madison, Crockett, Fayette, Hardeman, Haywood, Lauderdale, Shelby and Tipton. Given the anticipated direct suppliers and service providers for the eight-county region, there are an estimated 3.4 jobs that will be created from every one direct job at BlueOval.

An estimated 5,760 direct jobs created at Ford and SK will reportedly result in the creation of 13,824 indirect jobs by 2026 - equating to the creation of 19,584 new jobs in the eight-county, economic-impact zone.

According to the housing study, it’s anticipated that this year, Madison County will see 4,509 of those employees as residents. That number grows to 7,087 in 2025 when production at BOC is underway. Additional estimates project Madison County will see 10,187 of those employees by 2026. By 2035, the growth range for Madison is 11,950 to 13,200. 

“In order to reach this 110,950-112,200 population projection, the Jackson housing market will have to add units at a much faster pace than in recent decades. The new housing must be priced within mortgage limits for prevailing Madison County wages. The new units must offer modern amenities and finishes that appeal to young adults. Availability of housing will be the determining factor for where population growth generated by BlueOval City will occur during the early years of the project,” the housing study notes. With that growth comes an expansion of infrastructure, something that Massey says is a focus for his administration.

“Infrastructure is a major focus in Madison County and even more so with our new residents and businesses. With new residents and businesses come new tax revenue that will help to fund the infrastructure needs in the future. Madison County is in exemplary financial condition and has grown our fund balance (County savings account) every year for the last several years. If needed, the funds are there to meet the demand of infrastructure improvements,” Massey shared.

According to the report, the Jackson (housing) market, like the entire U.S. market, is experiencing an extended housing shortage. New housing starts dropped dramatically during the financial and mortgage-based securities crisis of 2007-2008. In the Jackson housing market, new residential construction has, to date, not returned to pre-2007 levels. During the conclusion of the study, Younger and Associates reported only 186 homes listed for sale in Madison County through the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) in November 2022. Houses cost 20 percent more than 2022 prices, according to the study. Recent, steady increases in interest rates have resulted in houses listed for sale longer than post-Covid listings.

To keep up with the estimated population growth, there are 434 single-family housing unit plans in Madison County that are approved and in development, according to files in the Jackson Planning Department.

According to the report, the economic-impact region will need at least 3,500 new, single-family residential units by 2035 to meet the demand generated by BlueOval City.

“The housing study serves to offer true and data-driven information to put in front of prospects to solidify their decision to locate in Madison County. We know we are growing, we all see that, but the study offers proof to outsiders to justify expansion and investment in our community,” Massey concluded.

The full 80-page study can be found online at westtnplanning.tn.gov.